Voting plans

[liv]

So I have applied for a proxy vote (first time I've done that) because I'm unexpectedly going to be away on European election day. This means I need to inform my proxy of my voting decision. I am at this point genuinely undecided between Green and Lib Dem, so I'm open to persuasion.

Pros of Green:

• They're part of a sensible alliance in Europe.
• They are having a massive upsurge lately and it might well be the right time to vote for them
• They have actual policies pertaining to European as well as national politics.
• I do in fact care quite a lot about averting environmental disaster, and that is a properly international issue which the EU is best placed to deal with.

Cons of Green:

• It might be tactically wrong and split the Remain vote in a way that would have bad consequences.
• They're actively against economic growth.
• I massively disagree with them about some key issues like nuclear power and genetic engineering, but honestly those things are a low priority in this election.
• They're pro euthanasia, and that for me negates their generally sound policy on disability.

Pros of Lib Dem

• In theory I agree with lots of their policies.
• They're committed and effective Remain campaigners. I think a Lib Dem vote might be the best shot at keeping us in the EU.
• Lots of my friends are Lib Dems and an increased vote base for LD would make them happy.
• If, as is likely, we end up leaving the EU and the MEPs never actually get to take their seats, a swing towards Lib Dem is likely to have good effects on national politics.
• I'm basically a centrist / moderate / liberal at heart, not by the nonsensical definition of taking an average position between pure evil and happy rainbow unicorns, but by the actual definition of not wanting extreme drastic change or revolution.

Cons of Lib Dem:

• They have a really bad track record of actually carrying out their policies once elected.
• They are afraid of collaborating politically because it backfired badly previously.
• I don't have a clear picture of whether they're likely to be effective in Europe, if we do in fact stay in the EU long enough for MEPs to matter.
• They're not consistently anti-austerity.
• They're super white, even though in principle they're pro immigrant.

Things I don't care about: the expletive 2010 national election. 2010 was a long time ago and the whole political scene was massively different. I understand why Labour people keep harking back to it, because they did unexpectedly well against the Tories, they had a reasonable and generally respected leader, and if only they could fight 2010 all over again, they'd probably do really really well. But turning the clock back is not an option, and Labour being a reasonably plausible Westminster opposition party from 2010-2015 is utterly irrelevant to Europe.

So I am not likely to be convinced by the argument that Lib Dems might form a coalition with the Tories (ludicrously unlikely at European level and probably at all). Nor that they formed a coalition with the Tories in the past and failed to oppose Tory policies and are therefore "tainted". Since 2015, which is the more relevant time period, Lib Dems have been as useful as Greens and the regional nationalists (and massively more useful than Labour as the official opposition) in actually opposing bad government decisions.

I also 100% don't give a shit that the Lib Dems used a naughty word in some of their election campaigning, BTW.

So I think mostly I want advice on tactical voting here. If it matters, I am voting in the East region. But if someone wants to point me to a really critical policy difference between the LDs and the Greens, that could be persuasive while I'm on the fence.

Comments

[theandrewhickey]

I'm a Lib Dem, so that should be taken into account here, but the Remainer-tactical voting sites do all seem to be saying that in *all* the English regions one should vote Lib Dem, given current polling (in Scotland and Wales they say to vote for the Nationalist parties in both cases). https://www.remainunited.org/your-voice-your-vote/ is the one that Gina Miller set up, while https://www.remaineu.org is another one.
(For full disclosure, https://www.remainvoter.com/ advises Green instead.)
All three of those tactical voter sites say they will update as it gets closer to the day, so if I were you, I'd bookmark them, check back the day before, and see if it's changed, but if it hasn't Lib Dem is your best bet.

[vyvyanx]

I'm a Green party member, and having looked at those three sites, I'd mention a couple of things. First, two out of three is not all! Secondly, RemainEU.org do not present an independent analysis of polling evidence to support their argument; their support for voting LD in the Eastern region is primarily on the grounds that Theresa May would view the election of Green MEPs as a vote against climate change rather than a vote for Remain, which would apparently create ambiguity in the Remain message (https://www.remaineu.org/#h.p_A6hGE_pAjysE). Finally, RemainUnited.org seem to base their recommendation for the Eastern region (confusingly described as Anglia in their tables) on an early May ComRes poll. Remainvoter.com, however, present a range of scenarios based on a range of recent polls (they don't yet include the May ComRes one) - hence they suggest that both ChangeUK and the Green Party would win seats in the Eastern region based on a 17 April YouGov poll, or that the Green Party would win the only unequivocally Remain seat based on an 11 April YouGov poll. In general ComRes seems to find less support for the Greens (5-6% in two polls) than YouGov (8-10% in five polls) since the end of March. Which is more reliable? Hard to say, especially when opinion seems so much in flux. However, YouGov's MRP model was apparently more successful at predicting the result of the 2017 general election than other polling companies.

In terms of critical policy differences, I don't know which areas are of particular interest to you, but one example springs to mind: the Greens have long been in favour of full rail renationalisation, while the Lib Dems, AFAICT, are not.

[ewx]

For the EU elections I would give very low weight to the longer term considerations (i.e. other than leave-vs-remain), since the likely outcome is still that we leave the EU and the MEPs elected don't contribute to many (or possibly even any) decisions.

[emperor]

I have this decision to make, too. I think, absent further polling suggesting otherwise, that a LD vote is more likely to result in an elected MEP than a Green vote in East of England; I think recent local performances are more likely to be indicative than the 2014 European election (when the LDs were being heavily punished for the coalition).

[hilarita]

I'm a Lib Dem, but tend to like the idea of getting more parties represented in parliaments, fwiw. I think that in the Eastern area, a LD vote will more likely result in a remain party being elected. LDs are also pretty good on green issues too.

I think that, given that the Eastern area is mostly very Tory, the LDs are more likely to pick up the centrist Tories rather than either Labour (who of course aren't Remain) or Greens.

[lovingboth]

In what way did Labour do unexpectedly well against the Tories in 2010?

I suspect the best option is to wait 12 days and see what the regional opinion polls say then.

[monanotlisa]

Oh, good call.

My father sent me my proxy vote; when I get home I need to get on with that...

[edrith.co.uk]

Caveat: I wouldn't vote for either party and clearly don't advocate for others do, so approaching this question purely as a theoretical exercise.

- In terms of signals on leaving the EU or not, I think the vote share (of the combined three clearly Remain parties and the combined two clearly Brexit parties) will be much more important than the actual number of seats won by each, so that from perspective it doesn't really matter.

- The MEPs are unlikely to be in post for long (and you've said you don't have a strong preference between them anyway) so slight differences in policies on things in the EU's competency shouldn't weigh heavily.

Given this, the most impactful variable, I think, is the impact that an increased vote share will have on the propensity of others to vote for them in future local or national elections and countering the 'can't win here' effect. If you like them about equally (and I think you're right in that the difference between Greens and LDs is much less than between any other two parties) then, unless your region is quite unusual, getting one of the left-woke-Remain parties to 15-20% nationally (and maybe more regionally) seems to be more impactful than getting the other left-woke-Remain party getting to 5-10%. Particularly given the likely fragmentation between Con/Lab/Brexit/Lib Dem meaning we could easily see no party getting over 35% in the next general election.

The slight counter to that is that a vote for the Greens is clearly better at signalling the importance of the environment (which, as an aside, is about the only part of these parties' agenda that I have support for).

Psuedo-legal disclaimer: this should in no way be taken as an endorsement or an encouragement to vote for either party. :-)