The fat lady sings

[liv]

I'm curious what people think about the end of the pandemic. So, a poll, do feel free to argue with my options in comments, that's always the fun part of a poll.

Please answer for whatever you think is your relevant region, whether that's country, state, province etc. I don't think there's any doubt that the pandemic still exists in the world as a whole, I'm interested in a bit more local than that.

Poll #24498 Is it over?

Open to: Registered Users, detailed results viewable to: All, participants: 103

View Respondents

Is the pandemic over yet?

View Answers

Yes
0 (0.0%)

No
103 (100.0%)

It never started here
0 (0.0%)

If the pandemic is over, when did it end?

View Answers

When restrictions were eased
0 (0.0%)

When the excess death rate dropped below average
0 (0.0%)

When the reported covid death rate dropped low enough
0 (0.0%)

When there were zero covid deaths
0 (0.0%)

When there were zero covid deaths for several weeks
0 (0.0%)

When the rate of new cases dropped low enough
0 (0.0%)

When there were zero new cases
0 (0.0%)

When there were zero new cases for several weeks
0 (0.0%)

When I went back to work in person
0 (0.0%)

When I met up with someone in person
0 (0.0%)

The pandemic never reached here
0 (0.0%)

Something else
3 (100.0%)

If the pandemic is still going on, when will it end?

View Answers

When restrictions are eased
1 (1.0%)

When the excess death rate is negative
4 (3.9%)

When the reported covid deaths drop low enough
10 (9.8%)

When there are zero covid deaths
6 (5.9%)

When there are zero covid deaths for several days
13 (12.7%)

When the rate of new cases drops low enough
23 (22.5%)

When there are zero new cases
8 (7.8%)

When there are zero new cases for several weeks
43 (42.2%)

When there is a change of government
2 (2.0%)

When there is an approved vaccine
23 (22.5%)

When I get vaccinated
9 (8.8%)

When the majority of the population is vaccinated
83 (81.4%)

When there is an approved, curative treatment
52 (51.0%)

When enough people have been exposed to achieve herd immunity (without a vaccine)
24 (23.5%)

Never, this is reality now
13 (12.7%)

The pandemic hasn't started here
0 (0.0%)

Something else
3 (2.9%)

Comments

[worlds_of_smoke]

I ended up splitting my vote between options that are "this would be a nice reality" and "this is what will happen, probably".

I'd like to be optimistic and say there's going to be an end to this, so I did. But I have to be a realist too. I think this is something that's likely to end up being like HIV, something that we live with, but can be managed. It will be a lot more difficult, I think, just because of the different nature of the virus. But it may be something that is never really "over".

I can dream, but I'm also someone who hedges her bets.

[rmc28]

Yeah, my expectation is that we eventually get a vaccine, but given what we know about coronaviruses evolving, it becomes an annual exercise to get a Covid jab as well as (alongside?) a flu jab.

[worlds_of_smoke]

Yeah, IDK. I don't think there's going to be "a" vaccine. Honestly, the idea of having to get a yearly COVID jab scares me because of the idiot anti-vaxxers, but I think that may be the best we can get. :/

[(Anonymous)]

Annual boosters won't be necessary if, as seems plausible (but of course we know nothing for sure, yet), the fatal immune system overreaction only happens on first encounter, and (assuming you survive that) subsequent infections are mild, as with existing common cold coronaviruses.

[flippac]

Yeah, my votes for "when's it over?" definitely "at least several of these hold" for that kind of reason.

[worlds_of_smoke]

yeah. One can dream, but in a situation like this, one really needs to be realistic.

[fanf]

I think my criteria for it not being a pandemic any more boil down to there not being frequent flare-ups and lockdowns. Or, if we give up trying to control it that way, some kind of vaccine and/or cure.

[lavendersparkle]

For me, it's 'over' when I no longer have to severely restrict my actions to protect my more clinically vulnerable relatives. I think that the best hope for that happening in the next 12 to 18 months is a vaccine, even if it only confers immunity for a limited period of time/makes covid significantly less lethal rather than provides complete immunity and has only been rolled out to the most vulnerable. Next best would be major advances in treatment that dramatically reduce the fatality rate. Worst case scenario is that it keeps rumbling around until it becomes less lethal through a combination of herd immunity and viral evolution.

[slashmarks]

I think it will continue to be a virus that exists, certainly, but that doesn't mean we'll stay in a constant state of crisis any more than the existence of influenza means we're in a constant state of flu pandemic (insert ebola, measles, smallpox before it was eliminated, whatever). So I expect that new cases and deaths will never be zero, but they will drop enough to be just another disease, most likely after mass vaccination is possible. It would eventually happen without vaccination but that's unlikely to have to be tested. But vacccination will be achieved faster and more thoroughly in some areas and populations than others. The fatality rate will probably also drop as medical science gets more experience treating severe cases.

[crystalpyramid]

I checked boxes in a liberal mess of "well this has to happen before the pandemic can end" (my selfish country getting a less selfish government so we can stop selfishly exporting disease) and "any of these would be sufficient even though some of them are unlikely", which is probably fairly incoherent.

[redbird]

I don't know when it will be over, but certainly not before we have at least one of an effective vaccine, or an effective, curative treatment.

At least, not here: it might not be a world-wide pandemic at some future date when things are enough better elsewhere and enough countries are being careful about testing/quarantining visitors from other countries. I very much doubt that the US will get there without at least one of an effective treatment or vaccine.

[hatam_soferet]

I think it will be ended enough when we can stop wearing masks in shops, and when we can travel places (possibly excluding the US). For this to happen there will probably need to be a vaccine with reasonable communal takeup, or perhaps it will die out naturally like the 1918 flu. I don't know. We aren't there yet and we won't be there soon.

[(Anonymous)]

My theory — given the massive age skew of fatality rates, the fact kids just shrug it off (unlike, say, influenza, which regularly kills a few dozen children each year), and the fact that the thing which actually seems to kill people is their immune system freaking out, rather than the actual virus — is that if you get this when you're a kid and your immune system is still adaptable it just deals with it, as it deals with the other common-cold-causing coronaviruses that circulate, and then through your life you will periodically get re-infected, but as it's not something totally alien that your immune system has never seen before all that happens is that you get a mild cold.

On the other hand if you get it for the first time when you're old and your immune system has ossified you're in deep trouble.

So this initial acute crisis will be over when it has spread enough through the young population that there's a degree of population resistance to provide firewalls against local outbreaks turning into epidemics — yes, herd immunity — and it will be over entirely in a few decades when everyone who's currently over, say, twenty has died, so it's endemic and almost everyone in the world gets it as a child and then throughout their life, just like the other coronaviruses.

In the meantime I expect doctors to get better at managing the symptoms and treating the immune system over-reaction, bringing down the IFR.

I would put chances of a vaccine at something a bit under 50/50 (and chances of a vaccine in the next three or four years at maybe 10% or less). There's never been a human coronavirus vaccine, and given that the very danger is in its interactions with the immune system in ways that we don't understand, attempting to artificially trick the immune system into thinking that you've got it (which is after all the whole point of a vaccine) seems fraught with problems and quite likely to throw up issues which we simply have never seen before and don't know anything about. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if a vaccine candidate works fine on young, healthy volunteers, but causes complications — liver or kidney damage maybe, or blood clots — when given to those in vulnerable groups, either initially or on challenge with the real virus.

[steorra]

I assume COVID-19 is here to stay. I think the pandemic will be over when herd immunity limits the transmission rate so we're no longer at risk of explosive growth. I *hope* herd immunity comes via vaccines, and I think there's a good chance of that, but I can't count on it - it might have to come through natural infection.

[mathcathy]

Something else = when I am not scared of the possibility of getting ill whenever I have to go out and am therefore leaving the house at a normal rate and for things which aren't essential as well as those which are.

It is possible that covid19 will mutate to be more friendly to its host. It is possible that scientists will learn a lot more about it to allow us to maneuver safely.

[silveradept]

My criteria are all AND, not OR, when it comes to the end of the pandemic (having a vaccination and most of the population vaccinated or immune, zero deaths over a long time, zero new cases over a long time,), which will also necessitate changes in government because none of those criteria will be met with the current chuckleheads in change, but that's a function of deliberately destructive government rather than of the virus.

[adrian_turtle]

My town now reports that there have been zero covid deaths for several days. It doesn't feel like anything close to the end of the pandemic; partly because nearby towns aren't so lucky, and partly because we only have that low infection rate because of careful social distancing.

I won't feel like the pandemic is over until my congregation can safely meet and sing together face to face. And when somebody says kaddish for people we lost to covid, it will be for a yahrzeit, not a shiva.

[rosefox]

That's a really good metric.

For me the pandemic will be over when we all get together face-to-face and bench gomel together.

[lilacsigil]

I think that COVID won't be over, but the pandemic will - COVID will continue to circulate like flu, but with seasonal outbreaks in adults and minor infections (with a few fatal exceptions) in children. Whether or not a vaccine is needed to get to that level will depend on how long natural immunity lasts, and we don't know that yet.

[anoisblue]

Hello! We've not met yet but a survey seems like a good starting point. Altamira16 pointed me in your direction. My name is Lisa. I look forward to seeing the responses to this.